Winter Storm Potential-Jan. 7

Well for the New Year I told myself I was going to update this more often. I view this blog as a good way for me to work on my forecast discussion skill and interpreting my thoughts.
Upcoming forecast: We have a low pressure system in the Pacific Northwest that will be moving onshore early this weekend. This system will intensify as it moves to the east side of the Rockies. This low will be bringing extremely cold air with it as it moves through the Midwest. Ahead of the system gulf moisture will be streaming in to the area. The combination of the moisture and Arctic air will be bringing a chance of winter weather to the Mid-Missouri area. It is too early to have estimates in mind, but I plan on doing a more extensive blog update when the 00z data rolls in.

Tropical Depression #1 Forms

Well it looks like the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season has begun. Tropical Depression 1 has formed about 355 miles southeast of Cozumel, Mexico. It winds are peaking around 35 mph and central pressure is around 1004 mb. Right now the forecast strength is for this depression to grow into Tropical Storm Alex by Saturday morning. The storm should affect the the Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday evening and then cross into the Gulf of Mexico where the storm could do devastating damage without even being that strong.

Because of the on-going oil spill in the Gulf any storm in the Gulf will turn up seas. Here is a look at the model forecast tracks:

Right now the worst cast scenario would be the GFDL model. We should have a better idea on what the storm is going to do once it enters the Gulf, which is still 24 to 36 hours away. Ill update the blog in the Morning.

June 1st Outlook

This is my first post, hopefully as this summer and school year progress they will be more technical and informative.

June 1st looks to be decent severe weather outbreak from east central Nebraska over to all of Iowa and grazing extreme northwestern Missouri. June 1st does not appear to be a big tornado outbreak but probably a few isolated tornadoes with the main threat being wind and hail.

Discussion:

Based on the 31May 12z NAM

A shortwave will be moving through the north central high plains. With dew points being well above 60 by 18z the atmosphere will be more than primed. CAPE values by 21z are over 3000 j/kg. Hodographs are looking very good as well.

Target:

Nebraska City by 2 pm with storm initiation to happen by 22z (5pm)